Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs Sturm 53.6% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 92.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 73.3%
Neutral zone
Frost 62.1%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
Frost
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Frost
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (701)
54.6% (271)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
54.4% (90)
+45.6%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +45.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Frost shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Frost
Sturm
Home
56.0% (443)
53.0% (168)
Away
56.6% (429)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Frost
Sturm
P1
58.9%
58.2%
P2
55.3%
53.2%
P3
54.0%
52.3%
OT
70.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:37 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 12:07 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 08:39 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |