Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.3% vs Sturm 56.1% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 89.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 69.4%
Neutral zone
Frost 70.1%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 61.0%
61.0%
39.0%
Frost
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
13
(22 meetings)
9
13
Frost
Sturm
Last 10: Frost 5-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
6
2
Frost
Sturm
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
7
Frost
Sturm
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
4
Frost
Sturm
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (3,598)
57.1% (2,719)
-7.7%
Power Play
55.5% (625)
61.3% (62)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (36)
51.0% (498)
+1.8%
On even strength, Sturm has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Frost is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Frost shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Frost
Sturm
Home
51.0% (2,047)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
49.7% (2,212)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Frost
Sturm
P1
50.8%
56.5%
P2
51.1%
54.9%
P3
48.5%
57.4%
OT
66.7%
60.6%
Final 5 min
48.7%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:37 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 12:07 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 08:39 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 19:59 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 06:40 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:19 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 10:42 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 07:51 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 08:29 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 10:35 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 1 | 10:30 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 1 | 07:22 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 1 | 01:07 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 3 | 00:56 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 2 | 11:37 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 2 | 08:46 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 1 | 13:02 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |