Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Frost wins 54.9% vs right-shot opponents — Ford shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs Ford 47.9% (+11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 87.3%
Defensive zone
Ford 53.2%
Neutral zone
Frost 60.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Frost
Ford
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Frost
Ford
Last 5: Frost 3-2 Ford
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Ford
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ford
0
1
Frost
Ford
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
2
1
Frost
Ford
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Ford
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (701)
45.1% (51)
+9.8%
Power Play
60.8% (166)
100.0% (1)
-39.2%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
38.5% (13)
+61.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +61.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ford shoots right. Frost is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Frost shoots left. Ford is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (56).
Home / Away
Frost
Ford
Home
56.0% (443)
35.7% (14)
Away
56.6% (429)
47.1% (51)
By Period
Frost
Ford
P1
58.9%
50.0%
P2
55.3%
52.0%
P3
54.0%
31.8%
Final 5 min
51.4%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Ford
44.0%▬
44.6%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 17:13 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 14:52 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 07:52 | Neutral | Parker Ford |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 14:42 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 14:33 | Defensive | Parker Ford |