Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +15.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Bergeron on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Frost wins 45.1% vs right-shot opponents — Bergeron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 46.2% vs Bergeron 60.5% (-15.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 87.7%
Defensive zone
Frost 87.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 80.8%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 86.6%
86.6%
13.4%
Frost
Bergeron
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Frost
Bergeron
Last 7: Frost 1-6 Bergeron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
1
2
Frost
Bergeron
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
0
3
Frost
Bergeron
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bergeron
0
1
Frost
Bergeron
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Bergeron
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (833)
62.5% (1,109)
-16.9%
Power Play
46.0% (100)
62.2% (352)
-16.2%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (18)
53.5% (245)
+2.1%
On even strength, Bergeron has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bergeron shoots right. Frost is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Frost shoots left. Bergeron is 63.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,178).
Home / Away
Frost
Bergeron
Home
47.0% (440)
61.9% (917)
Away
44.8% (511)
60.2% (789)
By Period
Frost
Bergeron
P1
42.5%
60.8%
P2
47.9%
60.3%
P3
46.6%
63.0%
OT
66.7%
51.5%
Final 5 min
48.5%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
45.8%
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
61.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 14:24 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 17:27 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 05:15 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 1 | 15:05 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 1 | 00:37 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 16:50 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 17:23 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |