Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.3% vs Thompson 54.5% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 87.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 51.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 67.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 63.5%
63.5%
36.5%
Larkin
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Larkin
Thompson
Last 10: Larkin 2-8 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
Larkin
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
4
Larkin
Thompson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Larkin
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (973)
55.8% (654)
-4.8%
Power Play
59.5% (252)
50.0% (10)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (137)
51.2% (123)
-1.6%
On power play, Larkin has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Larkin is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (851).
Larkin shoots left. Thompson is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Larkin
Thompson
Home
54.9% (721)
57.0% (421)
Away
49.6% (641)
52.7% (366)
By Period
Larkin
Thompson
P1
52.4%
57.9%
P2
50.8%
52.3%
P3
54.4%
55.2%
OT
43.8%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.4%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2020 | 2 | 19:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 2 | 12:40 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 1 | 08:44 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 1 | 02:41 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 19:46 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 09:10 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 05:38 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 02:41 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 3 | 16:45 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 2 | 19:42 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |