Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +18.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 35.0% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 38.6% vs Thompson 54.5% (-18.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 94.2%
Defensive zone
Hughes 73.6%
Neutral zone
Hughes 90.1%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 84.2%
84.2%
15.8%
Hughes
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Hughes
Thompson
Last 7: Hughes 1-6 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hughes
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
3
Hughes
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
Hughes
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
35.6% (362)
55.8% (654)
-20.2%
Power Play
38.5% (91)
50.0% (10)
-11.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
51.2% (123)
-17.9%
On even strength, Thompson has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Hughes is 35.0% vs left-shot opponents (277).
Hughes shoots left. Thompson is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Hughes
Thompson
Home
37.6% (255)
57.0% (421)
Away
34.3% (207)
52.7% (366)
By Period
Hughes
Thompson
P1
28.5%
57.9%
P2
39.2%
52.3%
P3
40.8%
55.2%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
39.3%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2020 | 3 | 18:51 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 28, 2019 | 1 | 14:41 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 28, 2019 | 1 | 14:36 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 28, 2019 | 1 | 04:40 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 12:52 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 04:57 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 02:06 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |