Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.9% vs 52.2%). Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Thompson wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 52.9% vs Paul 52.2% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 73.6%
Defensive zone
Thompson 56.7%
Neutral zone
Paul 63.6%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Thompson
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Thompson
Paul
Last 10: Thompson 3-7 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Thompson
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
3
4
Thompson
Paul
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
4
Thompson
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (5,812)
52.5% (3,796)
+1.6%
Power Play
54.8% (135)
56.5% (480)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (1,381)
46.7% (574)
+1.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Thompson is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (4,683).
Thompson shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
Thompson
Paul
Home
54.8% (3,626)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
51.1% (3,717)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Thompson
Paul
P1
53.2%
53.9%
P2
52.9%
51.0%
P3
52.8%
52.0%
OT
47.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.6%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 17:27 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 14, 2021 | 2 | 11:30 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 1 | 08:32 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 5, 2021 | 2 | 18:08 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 2 | 16:15 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 11, 2019 | 2 | 02:04 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 11, 2019 | 1 | 05:15 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 19:36 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 3 | 05:43 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 2 | 04:02 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 1 | 19:12 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 1 | 11:52 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 1 | 11:40 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 1 | 06:15 | Neutral | Nick Paul |