Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 14 meetings). Thompson wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 52.9% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 20-19 in 39 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 69.1%
Defensive zone
Thompson 71.7%
Neutral zone
Thompson 54.3%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Thompson
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
20
(39 meetings)
19
20
Thompson
O'Reilly
Last 10: Thompson 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
10
Thompson
O'Reilly
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
11
3
Thompson
O'Reilly
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
7
Thompson
O'Reilly
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (5,812)
56.2% (15,260)
-2.1%
Power Play
54.8% (135)
58.8% (3,445)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (1,381)
51.4% (2,811)
-3.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Thompson is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (4,683).
Thompson shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Thompson
O'Reilly
Home
54.8% (3,626)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
51.1% (3,717)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Thompson
O'Reilly
P1
53.2%
55.6%
P2
52.9%
57.0%
P3
52.8%
55.1%
OT
47.9%
62.2%
Final 5 min
51.6%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2019 | 1 | 05:57 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 3 | 13:25 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 18:55 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 15:35 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 02:29 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2018 | 3 | 16:16 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 19, 2018 | 3 | 09:42 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 19, 2018 | 2 | 03:16 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 17, 2018 | 3 | 16:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 17, 2018 | 3 | 16:12 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 17, 2018 | 3 | 09:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 17, 2018 | 3 | 06:09 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 17, 2018 | 2 | 14:49 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 17, 2018 | 1 | 08:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 17, 2018 | 1 | 05:07 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 17, 2018 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 9, 2017 | 3 | 15:17 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 9, 2017 | 1 | 11:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 3 | 01:18 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 3 | 01:09 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |