Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Thompson wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 54.3% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-1.1%)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 67.3%
Defensive zone
Thompson 59.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 51.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Thompson
O'Reilly
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (236)
56.6% (1,064)
-1.1%
Power Play
60.0% (5)
60.4% (260)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (46)
54.0% (261)
+2.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Thompson is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (199).
Thompson shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Thompson
O'Reilly
Home
53.1% (128)
54.9% (801)
Away
57.9% (159)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Thompson
O'Reilly
P1
59.0%
58.0%
P2
55.4%
56.7%
P3
52.6%
55.4%
Final 5 min
51.4%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
55.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%