Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Horcoff on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thompson wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Horcoff shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 52.9% vs Horcoff 49.6% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 56.5%
Defensive zone
Thompson 84.2%
Neutral zone
Thompson 72.0%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 75.5%
75.5%
24.5%
Thompson
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Thompson
Horcoff
Last 6: Thompson 4-2 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
0
Thompson
Horcoff
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horcoff
1
2
Thompson
Horcoff
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
2
0
Thompson
Horcoff
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (5,812)
50.6% (3,133)
+3.5%
Power Play
54.8% (135)
51.4% (555)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (1,381)
43.0% (567)
+4.9%
On penalty kill, Thompson has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. Thompson is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (4,683).
Thompson shoots left. Horcoff is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,000).
Home / Away
Thompson
Horcoff
Home
54.8% (3,626)
51.1% (2,199)
Away
51.1% (3,717)
48.0% (2,104)
By Period
Thompson
Horcoff
P1
53.2%
48.2%
P2
52.9%
49.5%
P3
52.8%
50.9%
OT
47.9%
51.9%
Final 5 min
51.6%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.9%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2015 | 3 | 00:56 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 1, 2015 | 1 | 15:05 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 1, 2015 | 1 | 12:11 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 1, 2015 | 1 | 05:16 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 31, 2014 | 1 | 09:08 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 1 | 19:18 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |