Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 52.9% vs Connolly 47.3% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Connolly leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Connolly 76.8%
Defensive zone
Thompson 78.8%
Neutral zone
Connolly 52.4%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 58.3%
41.7%
58.3%
Thompson
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Thompson
Connolly
Last 10: Thompson 4-6 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
2
5
Thompson
Connolly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
3
0
Thompson
Connolly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
2
Thompson
Connolly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (5,812)
47.4% (1,307)
+6.7%
Power Play
54.8% (135)
50.2% (251)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (1,381)
41.9% (186)
+6.0%
On even strength, Thompson has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Thompson is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (2,660).
Thompson shoots left. Connolly is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,179).
Home / Away
Thompson
Connolly
Home
54.8% (3,626)
48.5% (870)
Away
51.1% (3,717)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Thompson
Connolly
P1
53.2%
47.4%
P2
52.9%
47.7%
P3
52.8%
47.0%
OT
47.9%
37.8%
Final 5 min
51.6%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.9%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2012 | 2 | 08:51 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 3, 2012 | 1 | 16:55 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 3, 2012 | 1 | 11:58 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 22, 2011 | 3 | 02:40 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 22, 2011 | 3 | 02:29 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 1 | 15:29 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 1 | 15:16 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 1 | 00:09 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 18, 2010 | 3 | 10:55 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 18, 2010 | 2 | 03:53 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 18, 2010 | 2 | 03:49 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 20, 2010 | 3 | 06:53 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |