Connor Bedard vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 20 meetings). Bedard wins 40.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.3% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 28-28 in 56 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 51.7%
Defensive zone
Bedard 57.2%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.1%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Bedard
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
28
-
28
(56 meetings)
28
28
Bedard
MacKinnon
Last 10: Bedard 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
10
Bedard
MacKinnon
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
15
5
Bedard
MacKinnon
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
11
13
Bedard
MacKinnon
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
40.1% (1,580)
46.1% (11,218)
-6.0%
Power Play
51.9% (77)
53.3% (1,412)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
42.8% (502)
+7.2%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Bedard is 40.6% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Bedard shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
Home / Away
Bedard
MacKinnon
Home
43.3% (785)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
38.5% (896)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Bedard
MacKinnon
P1
39.0%
47.4%
P2
40.7%
46.6%
P3
42.6%
46.1%
OT
42.9%
48.4%
Final 5 min
44.9%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 10:19 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:36 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 14:13 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 10:32 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 06:48 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 00:46 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 15:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 15:08 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 10:33 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 07:31 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 17:50 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 06:31 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:34 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 02:21 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 12:08 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:07 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:25 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |