Scouting Report
Eric Staal holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Staal wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 46.6% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 62.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 63.4%
Neutral zone
Staal 66.1%
Result
Eric Staal favored at 66.1%
66.1%
33.9%
Staal
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Staal
MacKinnon
Last 6: Staal 4-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
4
2
Staal
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (565)
44.7% (1,053)
+4.9%
Power Play
35.0% (20)
36.8% (95)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (158)
65.0% (20)
-29.6%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +29.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Staal is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (268).
Staal shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Staal
MacKinnon
Home
46.1% (380)
49.4% (553)
Away
46.3% (363)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Staal
MacKinnon
P1
45.7%
45.3%
P2
46.2%
42.7%
P3
46.5%
45.1%
Final 5 min
47.4%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
46.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 17:09 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 13:25 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 03:35 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 06:54 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 06:29 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 1 | 13:47 | Neutral | Eric Staal |