Fedor Svechkov vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Svechkov wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Svechkov 44.2% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 86.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 64.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 74.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 75.3%
24.7%
75.3%
Svechkov
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Svechkov
MacKinnon
Last 6: Svechkov 4-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Svechkov
2
0
Svechkov
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Svechkov
2
0
Svechkov
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Svechkov
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Svechkov
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (430)
50.0% (992)
-7.0%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
64.9% (148)
-31.6%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
34.4% (32)
+5.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +31.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Svechkov is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Svechkov shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Svechkov
MacKinnon
Home
41.0% (212)
53.3% (591)
Away
44.7% (226)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Svechkov
MacKinnon
P1
36.1%
49.9%
P2
45.4%
53.2%
P3
46.7%
50.8%
OT
100.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
42.4%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Svechkov
34.0%▼
41.5%
42.9%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 01:53 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 06:16 | Offensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 04:51 | Offensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 12:37 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 01:26 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:36 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |