Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Chytil on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Chytil wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Chytil 47.3% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 60.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 70.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 59.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 66.6%
33.4%
66.6%
Chytil
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Chytil
MacKinnon
Last 5: Chytil 4-1 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Chytil
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Chytil
3
0
Chytil
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Chytil
1
0
Chytil
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Chytil
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (503)
49.2% (1,266)
-2.3%
Power Play
42.1% (57)
54.9% (193)
-12.8%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (4)
49.1% (55)
+50.9%
On penalty kill, Chytil has a +50.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Chytil is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (173).
Chytil shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Chytil
MacKinnon
Home
49.7% (286)
50.9% (740)
Away
43.9% (278)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Chytil
MacKinnon
P1
47.5%
50.9%
P2
47.1%
51.8%
P3
45.7%
47.1%
OT
50.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
44.8%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Chytil
50.0%▲
47.0%
46.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:48 | Defensive | Filip Chytil |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:19 | Defensive | Filip Chytil |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:09 | Defensive | Filip Chytil |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 2 | 05:56 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 10:53 | Neutral | Filip Chytil |