Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.1% vs 48.4%). Look for Ward on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ward 48.4% vs MacKinnon 48.6% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 72.1%
Defensive zone
Ward 68.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.2%
Result
Joel Ward favored at 64.8%
64.8%
35.2%
Ward
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Ward
MacKinnon
Last 5: Ward 3-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
3
1
Ward
MacKinnon
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Ward
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ward
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (353)
48.2% (849)
+1.1%
Power Play
69.0% (42)
51.0% (151)
+18.0%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (98)
44.7% (47)
-10.0%
On power play, Ward has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Ward is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Ward shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (342).
Home / Away
Ward
MacKinnon
Home
48.4% (219)
51.2% (521)
Away
47.8% (274)
45.6% (526)
By Period
Ward
MacKinnon
P1
43.0%
49.9%
P2
51.4%
48.0%
P3
50.0%
47.9%
OT
33.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
41.8%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2015 | 2 | 16:52 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 2 | 14:36 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 2 | 11:19 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 12:34 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 06:35 | Defensive | Joel Ward |