Scouting Report
Matt Stajan holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stajan 51.2% vs MacKinnon 42.6% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 84.7%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 50.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 62.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 69.7%
30.3%
69.7%
Stajan
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Stajan
MacKinnon
Last 6: Stajan 2-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
3
Stajan
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stajan
2
0
Stajan
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Stajan
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stajan
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (395)
40.7% (953)
+11.5%
Power Play
60.0% (5)
51.4% (148)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (82)
36.4% (55)
+11.2%
On even strength, Stajan has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Stajan is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (193).
Stajan shoots left. MacKinnon is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (808).
Home / Away
Stajan
MacKinnon
Home
50.8% (238)
42.1% (617)
Away
52.0% (244)
41.7% (540)
By Period
Stajan
MacKinnon
P1
56.3%
43.4%
P2
48.8%
40.9%
P3
49.4%
40.8%
Final 5 min
52.2%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stajan
50.0%▬
49.5%
51.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
41.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2018 | 3 | 00:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2018 | 1 | 03:03 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 24, 2018 | 3 | 14:46 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 24, 2018 | 1 | 16:03 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Feb 24, 2018 | 1 | 09:06 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 1 | 05:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |