Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 44.5% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.9% vs Gagner 43.8% (+14.0%)
Offensive zone
Gagner 56.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 69.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
MacKinnon
Gagner
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,053)
31.0% (29)
+13.7%
Power Play
36.8% (95)
29.4% (17)
+7.4%
On even strength, MacKinnon has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (308).
MacKinnon shoots right. Gagner is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (10).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Gagner
Home
49.4% (553)
36.8% (19)
Away
40.0% (615)
25.9% (27)
By Period
MacKinnon
Gagner
P1
45.3%
27.8%
P2
42.7%
15.4%
P3
45.1%
46.7%
Final 5 min
49.8%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
44.4%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
30.4%