Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Howden on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Howden wins 43.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 47.6% vs Dowd 55.5% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Howden 77.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 79.0%
Neutral zone
Howden 51.7%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Howden
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Howden
Dowd
Last 6: Howden 3-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Howden
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Howden
3
2
Howden
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (191)
58.2% (617)
-8.5%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
71.4% (7)
-28.5%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (48)
47.2% (144)
-11.8%
On power play, Dowd has a +28.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Howden is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (96).
Howden shoots left. Dowd is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Howden
Dowd
Home
42.8% (138)
58.4% (399)
Away
51.3% (115)
53.9% (369)
By Period
Howden
Dowd
P1
47.9%
59.0%
P2
49.4%
56.1%
P3
43.3%
54.6%
Final 5 min
45.7%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
46.6%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2021 | 3 | 16:17 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 3 | 08:41 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 3 | 05:28 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 2 | 18:57 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 2 | 05:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 1 | 11:03 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |