Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.5% vs 49.9%). Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Schwindt wins 38.7% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schwindt 50.3% vs Dowd 49.9% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schwindt 88.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 72.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 56.5%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Schwindt
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Schwindt
Dowd
Last 5: Schwindt 1-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schwindt
1
0
Schwindt
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Schwindt
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Schwindt
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schwindt
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (209)
52.2% (835)
-2.4%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
60.0% (10)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
71.4% (7)
44.0% (350)
+27.4%
On penalty kill, Schwindt has a +27.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Schwindt is 38.7% vs right-shot opponents (62).
Schwindt shoots right. Dowd is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Schwindt
Dowd
Home
47.2% (123)
51.5% (619)
Away
54.7% (95)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Schwindt
Dowd
P1
50.8%
51.7%
P2
51.2%
51.6%
P3
49.4%
47.0%
Final 5 min
56.8%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schwindt
44.0%▼
47.0%
50.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | 3 | 06:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 3 | 03:35 | Offensive | Cole Schwindt |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 1 | 05:59 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 09:25 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 09:15 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |