Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 51.9% vs Dowd 48.1% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowd 59.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 64.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 57.7%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 59.5%
40.5%
59.5%
Spezza
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Spezza
Dowd
Last 6: Spezza 2-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Spezza
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Spezza
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (526)
47.2% (608)
+4.1%
Power Play
57.7% (123)
53.1% (96)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (29)
0.0% (3)
+44.8%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +44.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Spezza is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (187).
Spezza shoots right. Dowd is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
Spezza
Dowd
Home
53.7% (374)
48.7% (384)
Away
50.3% (304)
46.7% (323)
By Period
Spezza
Dowd
P1
50.2%
50.2%
P2
50.2%
47.5%
P3
56.2%
46.2%
OT
66.7%
40.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2016 | 2 | 01:19 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 2 | 17:42 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 2 | 08:06 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 2 | 06:12 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 1 | 07:58 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |