Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.7% vs 51.0%). Look for Patrick on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Patrick 51.0% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Patrick leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Patrick 92.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 57.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 51.3%
Result
Nolan Patrick favored at 67.6%
32.4%
67.6%
Dowd
Patrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
9
(13 meetings)
4
9
Dowd
Patrick
Last 10: Dowd 3-7 Patrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Patrick
0
6
Dowd
Patrick
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
1
Dowd
Patrick
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Dowd
Patrick
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Patrick
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
50.6% (1,978)
+1.8%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
57.5% (120)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
57.7% (26)
-13.6%
On penalty kill, Patrick has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Patrick shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Dowd shoots right. Patrick is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (683).
Home / Away
Dowd
Patrick
Home
51.9% (3,897)
49.7% (1,106)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
52.5% (1,018)
By Period
Dowd
Patrick
P1
51.7%
52.9%
P2
50.4%
49.1%
P3
50.3%
51.3%
OT
45.9%
40.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2022 | 3 | 13:23 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 24, 2022 | 2 | 10:16 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 8, 2021 | OT | 03:46 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 8, 2021 | 3 | 11:07 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| May 8, 2021 | 2 | 18:24 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 8, 2021 | 2 | 11:00 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Apr 13, 2021 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 13, 2021 | 1 | 04:29 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 2 | 03:05 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 3 | 12:43 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Mar 7, 2021 | 2 | 15:11 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 2 | 15:55 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 2 | 07:33 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |