Scouting Report
Patrik Berglund holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Berglund on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Dowd wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Berglund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.1% vs Berglund 50.0% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowd 86.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 53.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 69.1%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Dowd
Berglund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Dowd
Berglund
Last 8: Dowd 2-6 Berglund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Berglund
1
4
Dowd
Berglund
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Berglund
1
2
Dowd
Berglund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Berglund
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (608)
50.5% (982)
-3.3%
Power Play
53.1% (96)
55.7% (79)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
40.7% (108)
-40.7%
On penalty kill, Berglund has a +40.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Berglund shoots left. Dowd is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (483).
Dowd shoots right. Berglund is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (470).
Home / Away
Dowd
Berglund
Home
48.7% (384)
50.7% (548)
Away
46.7% (323)
49.3% (621)
By Period
Dowd
Berglund
P1
50.2%
49.6%
P2
47.5%
50.5%
P3
46.2%
49.6%
OT
40.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
48.4%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
47.8%
Berglund
60.0%▲
57.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2017 | 3 | 01:49 | Defensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Jan 12, 2017 | 2 | 06:05 | Defensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Jan 12, 2017 | 1 | 03:18 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 29, 2016 | 3 | 16:52 | Defensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Oct 29, 2016 | 3 | 04:43 | Defensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Oct 29, 2016 | 2 | 08:34 | Neutral | Patrik Berglund |
| Oct 29, 2016 | 1 | 05:46 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 29, 2016 | 1 | 05:34 | Neutral | Patrik Berglund |