Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Bedard wins 37.2% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 40.7% vs Bjugstad 49.3% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 51.9%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 81.1%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 67.1%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Bedard
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Bedard
Bjugstad
Last 7: Bedard 4-3 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
0
Bedard
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Bedard
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Bedard
Bjugstad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
38.9% (512)
50.7% (906)
-11.8%
Power Play
43.8% (16)
48.1% (108)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
44.4% (239)
-19.4%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Bedard is 37.2% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Bedard shoots right. Bjugstad is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (347).
Home / Away
Bedard
Bjugstad
Home
40.2% (246)
49.8% (643)
Away
37.8% (286)
48.7% (610)
By Period
Bedard
Bjugstad
P1
39.9%
49.4%
P2
38.5%
50.5%
P3
39.0%
47.9%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.9%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 13:48 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 12:30 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 2 | 07:20 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |