Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Dewar wins 37.0% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 46.0% vs Bjugstad 47.9% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 71.0%
Defensive zone
Dewar 61.4%
Neutral zone
Dewar 50.6%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Dewar
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Dewar
Bjugstad
Last 7: Dewar 3-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
Dewar
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Dewar
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dewar
3
1
Dewar
Bjugstad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (92)
46.7% (398)
-6.5%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
51.6% (31)
+48.4%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (31)
62.5% (8)
-14.1%
On power play, Dewar has a +48.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Dewar is 37.0% vs right-shot opponents (27).
Dewar shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
Dewar
Bjugstad
Home
41.0% (78)
47.3% (220)
Away
45.7% (46)
47.5% (217)
By Period
Dewar
Bjugstad
P1
38.9%
46.1%
P2
53.3%
46.3%
P3
34.9%
50.4%
Final 5 min
42.9%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
44.0%▬
43.5%
42.7%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2024 | 3 | 17:35 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 2 | 10:50 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 1 | 03:25 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |