Scouting Report
Zack Smith holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on offensive-zone draws (95% H2H, 21 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 48.9% vs Smith 50.6% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Bjugstad leads 24-14 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Smith 50.8%
Defensive zone
Smith 66.5%
Neutral zone
Smith 60.2%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Bjugstad
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
14
(38 meetings)
24
14
Bjugstad
Smith
Last 10: Bjugstad 9-1 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
20
1
Bjugstad
Smith
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
3
5
Bjugstad
Smith
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
1
8
Bjugstad
Smith
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (6,634)
51.6% (5,265)
-3.0%
Power Play
55.2% (829)
51.2% (342)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (614)
45.3% (985)
-1.0%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,747).
Bjugstad shoots right. Smith is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,394).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Smith
Home
49.8% (4,020)
52.5% (3,289)
Away
48.1% (4,057)
48.7% (3,310)
By Period
Bjugstad
Smith
P1
49.0%
49.9%
P2
49.1%
50.0%
P3
48.4%
51.9%
OT
61.3%
51.6%
Final 5 min
47.3%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2019 | 2 | 11:08 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 3 | 02:01 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 2 | 15:18 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 1 | 11:21 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 20, 2018 | 3 | 07:19 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 26, 2017 | 2 | 19:51 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 26, 2017 | 2 | 10:38 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 1 | 12:22 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 3, 2016 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 3 | 13:10 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 2 | 06:11 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 25, 2014 | OT | 01:36 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 1 | 15:46 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 1 | 07:57 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 1 | 04:37 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 19, 2013 | 3 | 15:30 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 19, 2013 | 3 | 06:13 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 19, 2013 | 3 | 00:36 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Dec 19, 2013 | 2 | 17:54 | Neutral | Zack Smith |