Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thompson wins 57.4% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 55.6% vs Foligno 46.4% (+10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 50.2%
Defensive zone
Thompson 92.2%
Neutral zone
Thompson 81.1%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 69.1%
69.1%
30.9%
Thompson
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Thompson
Foligno
Last 6: Thompson 4-2 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
2
Thompson
Foligno
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
2
0
Thompson
Foligno
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
0
Thompson
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (482)
46.3% (566)
+11.4%
Power Play
100.0% (2)
43.4% (106)
+56.6%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (154)
46.4% (69)
+5.5%
On power play, Thompson has a +56.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Thompson is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (401).
Thompson shoots left. Foligno is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (447).
Home / Away
Thompson
Foligno
Home
59.0% (327)
48.9% (364)
Away
53.7% (311)
43.0% (377)
By Period
Thompson
Foligno
P1
54.2%
48.7%
P2
61.3%
46.9%
P3
53.9%
44.0%
OT
100.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
53.6%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
56.4%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2017 | 3 | 05:21 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 1 | 12:18 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 1 | 01:52 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 24, 2017 | 3 | 19:10 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 24, 2017 | 3 | 01:43 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 24, 2017 | 2 | 14:22 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |