Scouting Report
Tyler Johnson holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Foligno wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 46.3% vs Johnson 53.7% (-10.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 62.3%
Defensive zone
Johnson 65.6%
Neutral zone
Johnson 57.8%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 63.1%
36.9%
63.1%
Foligno
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Foligno
Johnson
Last 7: Foligno 4-3 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
2
1
Foligno
Johnson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
2
1
Foligno
Johnson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Foligno
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
44.0% (159)
55.3% (284)
-11.3%
Power Play
54.9% (51)
50.0% (26)
+4.9%
On even strength, Johnson has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Foligno is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (92).
Foligno shoots left. Johnson is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Home / Away
Foligno
Johnson
Home
43.0% (142)
57.4% (162)
Away
47.1% (119)
52.0% (148)
By Period
Foligno
Johnson
P1
47.8%
51.5%
P2
42.6%
61.8%
P3
46.2%
47.4%
OT
20.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
44.8%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2021 | 3 | 12:42 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 3 | 04:28 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 3 | 04:22 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 2 | 13:03 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 2 | 12:49 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 3 | 05:29 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |