Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McKegg wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McKegg 47.4% vs Paul 50.6% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McKegg 69.5%
Defensive zone
McKegg 67.4%
Neutral zone
McKegg 66.7%
Result
Greg McKegg favored at 67.8%
67.8%
32.2%
McKegg
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
McKegg
Paul
Last 8: McKegg 2-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
3
McKegg
Paul
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McKegg
1
0
McKegg
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
McKegg
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McKegg
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (101)
50.8% (59)
-5.3%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
100.0% (1)
-50.0%
On power play, Paul has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McKegg is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (70).
McKegg shoots left. Paul is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (33).
Home / Away
McKegg
Paul
Home
50.0% (38)
53.5% (43)
Away
42.5% (73)
47.1% (17)
By Period
McKegg
Paul
P1
52.9%
47.4%
P2
40.5%
50.0%
P3
42.9%
60.0%
Final 5 min
41.2%
23.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McKegg
40.0%▼
48.0%
45.0%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2016 | 3 | 10:36 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 2 | 18:06 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 2 | 17:51 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 2 | 14:15 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 2 | 14:05 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 2 | 10:35 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 2 | 05:52 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 2 | 03:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |