Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Danforth on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danforth 48.8% vs Paul 53.9% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 90.2%
Defensive zone
Paul 63.5%
Neutral zone
Paul 70.9%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 82.5%
17.5%
82.5%
Danforth
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Danforth
Paul
Last 6: Danforth 5-1 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Danforth
4
0
Danforth
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Danforth
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Danforth
1
0
Danforth
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danforth
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (281)
53.1% (710)
-1.9%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
57.3% (199)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (67)
58.0% (69)
-22.2%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Danforth is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (262).
Danforth shoots right. Paul is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Danforth
Paul
Home
52.0% (196)
56.0% (466)
Away
44.1% (161)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Danforth
Paul
P1
48.2%
57.2%
P2
52.8%
54.9%
P3
42.2%
51.5%
OT
83.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.5%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
48.5%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 13:33 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 10:54 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 03:01 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 01:51 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:44 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 03:42 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |