Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.5% vs 50.0%). Look for Danforth on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danforth 49.5% vs Paul 50.0% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 63.5%
Defensive zone
Danforth 62.9%
Neutral zone
Danforth 50.4%
Result
Justin Danforth favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Danforth
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Danforth
Paul
Last 8: Danforth 7-1 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danforth
3
0
Danforth
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Danforth
4
1
Danforth
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danforth
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (546)
48.8% (666)
+1.7%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
53.8% (65)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (101)
60.0% (55)
-16.4%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Danforth is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (488).
Danforth shoots right. Paul is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Danforth
Paul
Home
51.1% (315)
49.7% (348)
Away
48.0% (346)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Danforth
Paul
P1
49.5%
51.0%
P2
51.4%
47.4%
P3
46.6%
51.5%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
52.4%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
49.5%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 09:44 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:52 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 08:29 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 08:23 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:17 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:12 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |