Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.1% vs 53.5%). Look for Couturier on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Paul wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.3% vs Couturier 53.2% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 69.2%
Defensive zone
Couturier 64.5%
Neutral zone
Paul 50.1%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
Paul
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Paul
Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
2
Paul
Couturier
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
1
Paul
Couturier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (327)
53.4% (758)
-0.2%
Power Play
61.4% (57)
62.9% (70)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
50.7% (227)
-0.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Paul shoots left. Couturier is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (680).
Home / Away
Paul
Couturier
Home
54.6% (183)
50.7% (517)
Away
53.6% (233)
56.1% (538)
By Period
Paul
Couturier
P1
56.3%
55.2%
P2
54.8%
53.0%
P3
52.4%
53.3%
OT
44.4%
42.4%
Final 5 min
59.0%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 19:59 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 01:23 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 12:53 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 16:06 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |