Scouting Report
Nick Spaling holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Fraser on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 47.9% vs Spaling 50.1% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spaling 65.7%
Defensive zone
Spaling 73.5%
Neutral zone
Spaling 70.3%
Result
Nick Spaling favored at 67.5%
32.5%
67.5%
Fraser
Spaling
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Fraser
Spaling
Last 7: Fraser 5-2 Spaling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
3
2
Fraser
Spaling
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
1
0
Fraser
Spaling
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fraser
1
0
Fraser
Spaling
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Spaling
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (332)
49.7% (756)
-0.9%
Power Play
30.0% (10)
35.3% (17)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
55.0% (120)
-16.5%
On penalty kill, Spaling has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spaling shoots left. Fraser is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Fraser shoots left. Spaling is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Home / Away
Fraser
Spaling
Home
49.7% (189)
52.1% (476)
Away
44.8% (181)
47.8% (418)
By Period
Fraser
Spaling
P1
44.6%
50.4%
P2
48.1%
51.3%
P3
49.1%
48.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
47.3%
Spaling
58.0%▲
53.0%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2012 | 2 | 01:14 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 17, 2012 | 2 | 00:58 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 3 | 17:00 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 3 | 12:46 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 3 | 04:35 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 3 | 02:07 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 2 | 03:04 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |