Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Backstrom on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kelly wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Backstrom shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 56.2% vs Backstrom 51.3% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backstrom 83.5%
Defensive zone
Kelly 52.4%
Neutral zone
Backstrom 67.3%
Result
Nicklas Backstrom favored at 74.8%
25.2%
74.8%
Kelly
Backstrom
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Kelly
Backstrom
Last 6: Kelly 1-5 Backstrom
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backstrom
0
4
Kelly
Backstrom
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Backstrom
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backstrom
0
1
Kelly
Backstrom
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Backstrom
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (298)
51.2% (654)
+7.5%
Power Play
100.0% (8)
50.9% (110)
+49.1%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (67)
53.9% (76)
-4.6%
On power play, Kelly has a +49.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backstrom shoots left. Kelly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (232).
Kelly shoots left. Backstrom is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Kelly
Backstrom
Home
60.0% (200)
52.0% (400)
Away
55.5% (173)
50.9% (440)
By Period
Kelly
Backstrom
P1
55.9%
51.6%
P2
58.4%
51.1%
P3
60.9%
50.7%
OT
37.5%
65.0%
Final 5 min
60.0%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
57.9%
Backstrom
50.0%▲
48.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2013 | OT | 01:50 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 3 | 12:15 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 2 | 14:02 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 5, 2013 | 2 | 16:06 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Mar 5, 2013 | 2 | 11:28 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Mar 5, 2013 | 1 | 15:10 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |