Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kellman on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kellman wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kellman 49.7% vs Sturm 50.9% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 50.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 60.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 58.0%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 55.9%
44.1%
55.9%
Kellman
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Kellman
Sturm
Last 7: Kellman 4-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kellman
3
0
Kellman
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Kellman
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kellman
1
0
Kellman
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kellman
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (52)
50.8% (126)
-4.6%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
50.0% (2)
+50.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
66.7% (6)
+33.3%
On power play, Kellman has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Kellman is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (39).
Kellman shoots left. Sturm is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (88).
Home / Away
Kellman
Sturm
Home
40.0% (20)
54.1% (74)
Away
54.3% (35)
48.3% (60)
By Period
Kellman
Sturm
P1
44.4%
48.1%
P2
52.9%
62.0%
P3
50.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
90.0%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kellman
50.0%▬
50.5%
49.1%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2021 | 3 | 19:09 | Offensive | Joel Kellman |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 3 | 07:12 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 3 | 06:51 | Offensive | Joel Kellman |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 2 | 03:50 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 15:11 | Neutral | Joel Kellman |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 10:17 | Offensive | Joel Kellman |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 05:51 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |