Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Stastny 55.1% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 80.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 73.6%
Neutral zone
Stastny 59.3%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 67.1%
32.9%
67.1%
Sturm
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Sturm
Stastny
Last 8: Sturm 2-6 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
4
Sturm
Stastny
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
2
Sturm
Stastny
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
54.6% (10,616)
+2.5%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
59.1% (1,994)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
52.9% (1,119)
-1.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Sturm shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Home / Away
Sturm
Stastny
Home
57.1% (1,614)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Sturm
Stastny
P1
56.5%
56.3%
P2
54.9%
55.4%
P3
57.4%
53.5%
OT
60.6%
62.9%
Final 5 min
56.9%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 16:10 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 17:11 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 3 | 19:16 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 2 | 01:42 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 1 | 01:37 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 10:42 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 15:38 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 12:16 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |