Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Greene shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Greene 44.7% (+12.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Greene 62.6%
Defensive zone
Sturm 50.3%
Neutral zone
Greene 63.0%
Result
Ryan Greene favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Sturm
Greene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Sturm
Greene
Last 5: Sturm 2-3 Greene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Greene
0
2
Sturm
Greene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
1
Sturm
Greene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Greene
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
43.7% (524)
+13.4%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
47.5% (59)
+13.8%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
43.6% (149)
+7.4%
On power play, Sturm has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greene shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Sturm shoots left. Greene is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (546).
Home / Away
Sturm
Greene
Home
57.1% (1,614)
47.4% (382)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
40.3% (350)
By Period
Sturm
Greene
P1
56.5%
46.4%
P2
54.9%
38.9%
P3
57.4%
47.0%
OT
60.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Greene
40.0%▬
40.5%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:35 | Offensive | Ryan Greene |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 02:14 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 12:05 | Offensive | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 11:59 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 07:15 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |