Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Bozak 53.4% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bozak 74.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 67.7%
Neutral zone
Sturm 50.7%
Result
Tyler Bozak favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
Sturm
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Sturm
Bozak
Last 5: Sturm 3-2 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
1
2
Sturm
Bozak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Bozak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Bozak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
53.7% (9,596)
+3.4%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
55.2% (1,990)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
48.0% (1,094)
+3.0%
On power play, Sturm has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Sturm shoots left. Bozak is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,417).
Home / Away
Sturm
Bozak
Home
57.1% (1,614)
56.0% (6,333)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
51.0% (6,396)
By Period
Sturm
Bozak
P1
56.5%
53.2%
P2
54.9%
52.8%
P3
57.4%
54.5%
OT
60.6%
52.9%
Final 5 min
56.9%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2021 | 1 | 09:06 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| May 1, 2021 | 2 | 04:31 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 3 | 13:41 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 1 | 08:06 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 1 | 02:23 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |