Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 50.9% vs Bozak 55.4% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bozak 57.9%
Defensive zone
Bozak 58.4%
Neutral zone
Bozak 51.7%
Result
Tyler Bozak favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Sturm
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Sturm
Bozak
Last 5: Sturm 3-2 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
1
2
Sturm
Bozak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Bozak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Bozak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (126)
58.3% (271)
-7.5%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
60.6% (33)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (6)
50.0% (78)
+16.7%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Sturm is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (46).
Sturm shoots left. Bozak is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (278).
Home / Away
Sturm
Bozak
Home
54.1% (74)
60.7% (206)
Away
48.3% (60)
52.3% (176)
By Period
Sturm
Bozak
P1
48.1%
57.3%
P2
62.0%
57.8%
P3
40.0%
56.2%
Final 5 min
55.2%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
51.5%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2021 | 1 | 09:06 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| May 1, 2021 | 2 | 04:31 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 3 | 13:41 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 1 | 08:06 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 1 | 02:23 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |