Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 39.2% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 39.8% vs Roy 47.9% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 68.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 81.9%
Neutral zone
Roy 80.7%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 77.6%
22.4%
77.6%
Bedard
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Bedard
Roy
Last 7: Bedard 5-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
0
Bedard
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
1
Bedard
Roy
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (618)
48.6% (679)
-10.6%
Power Play
38.7% (31)
48.0% (50)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
34.7% (49)
+22.4%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +22.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Bedard is 39.2% vs right-shot opponents (171).
Bedard shoots right. Roy is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Home / Away
Bedard
Roy
Home
40.5% (316)
49.3% (345)
Away
36.2% (340)
46.4% (433)
By Period
Bedard
Roy
P1
37.2%
47.6%
P2
36.9%
47.1%
P3
40.7%
47.9%
OT
50.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
43.4%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.3%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1 | 18:55 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:39 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:38 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 13:38 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 02:43 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:29 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |