Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Backstrom on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Backstrom wins 41.0% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backstrom 46.9% vs Roy 48.9% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backstrom 57.3%
Defensive zone
Roy 76.9%
Neutral zone
Roy 58.1%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 61.7%
38.3%
61.7%
Backstrom
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Backstrom
Roy
Last 8: Backstrom 6-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backstrom
3
0
Backstrom
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Backstrom
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backstrom
1
0
Backstrom
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backstrom
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (541)
49.5% (746)
-2.5%
Power Play
47.4% (95)
50.7% (75)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
15.4% (13)
42.7% (110)
-27.3%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +27.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Backstrom is 41.0% vs right-shot opponents (244).
Backstrom shoots left. Roy is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
Backstrom
Roy
Home
48.5% (328)
47.7% (491)
Away
44.2% (321)
50.0% (440)
By Period
Backstrom
Roy
P1
44.8%
51.1%
P2
42.9%
44.6%
P3
50.9%
50.9%
OT
57.1%
42.9%
Final 5 min
47.1%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backstrom
50.0%▲
48.5%
46.4%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2022 | 3 | 06:09 | Defensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 16:27 | Defensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Jan 24, 2022 | 3 | 09:14 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 24, 2022 | 3 | 04:51 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Jan 24, 2022 | 2 | 07:56 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Jan 24, 2022 | 2 | 04:40 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Jan 24, 2022 | 1 | 16:49 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Jan 24, 2022 | 1 | 08:02 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |