Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Lapierre wins 40.7% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lapierre 44.8% vs Cates 45.1% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lapierre 74.5%
Defensive zone
Cates 70.8%
Neutral zone
Cates 53.8%
Result
Hendrix Lapierre favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Lapierre
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Lapierre
Cates
Last 9: Lapierre 3-6 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lapierre
2
1
Lapierre
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Lapierre
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
1
3
Lapierre
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lapierre
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
39.8% (98)
46.7% (912)
-6.9%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
33.9% (56)
-0.6%
On even strength, Cates has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Lapierre is 40.7% vs left-shot opponents (81).
Lapierre shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Lapierre
Cates
Home
36.1% (61)
46.1% (521)
Away
45.0% (40)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Lapierre
Cates
P1
36.4%
48.0%
P2
40.0%
42.3%
P3
42.1%
44.3%
Final 5 min
40.0%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lapierre
40.0%▬
39.5%
39.6%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 19:08 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 18:50 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 10:12 | Offensive | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 10:03 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 09:58 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 03:03 | Offensive | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2 | 07:16 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2 | 04:04 | Neutral | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 1 | 04:59 | Neutral | Noah Cates |