Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Johnson wins 26.4% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johnson 38.1% vs Cates 40.4% (-10.0%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Johnson 79.1%
Defensive zone
Cates 65.7%
Neutral zone
Johnson 59.6%
Result
Kent Johnson favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Johnson
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Johnson
Cates
Last 10: Johnson 4-6 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
2
0
Johnson
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
3
Johnson
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
2
5
Johnson
Cates
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johnson
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
29.2% (130)
40.4% (841)
-11.2%
Power Play
33.3% (9)
42.4% (66)
-9.1%
On even strength, Cates has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Johnson is 26.4% vs left-shot opponents (87).
Johnson shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Home / Away
Johnson
Cates
Home
27.3% (55)
38.2% (566)
Away
31.0% (84)
41.0% (488)
By Period
Johnson
Cates
P1
22.2%
40.5%
P2
35.7%
42.4%
P3
31.4%
35.3%
OT
0.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
31.8%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johnson
36.0%▲
29.2%
29.5%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 17:25 | Neutral | Kent Johnson |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 11:41 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 10:22 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 10:13 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 02:45 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 2 | 17:06 | Offensive | Kent Johnson |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 2 | 14:18 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kent Johnson |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 18:00 | Offensive | Kent Johnson |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 12:58 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |