Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Patrick on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Dowd wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Patrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 55.5% vs Patrick 52.1% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Patrick 84.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 76.2%
Neutral zone
Dowd 56.8%
Result
Nolan Patrick favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Dowd
Patrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Dowd
Patrick
Last 9: Dowd 4-5 Patrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Patrick
0
4
Dowd
Patrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
0
Dowd
Patrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
1
Dowd
Patrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Patrick
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (617)
51.2% (371)
+7.0%
Power Play
71.4% (7)
62.2% (37)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (144)
59.1% (22)
-11.9%
On penalty kill, Patrick has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Patrick shoots right. Dowd is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (381).
Dowd shoots right. Patrick is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (188).
Home / Away
Dowd
Patrick
Home
58.4% (399)
48.5% (231)
Away
53.9% (369)
57.3% (199)
By Period
Dowd
Patrick
P1
59.0%
52.0%
P2
56.1%
52.3%
P3
54.6%
53.2%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.5%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
56.3%
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2021 | OT | 03:46 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 8, 2021 | 3 | 11:07 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| May 8, 2021 | 2 | 18:24 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| May 8, 2021 | 2 | 11:00 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Apr 13, 2021 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 13, 2021 | 1 | 04:29 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 2 | 03:05 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 3 | 12:43 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Mar 7, 2021 | 2 | 15:11 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |