Scouting Report
Nolan Patrick holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Bjugstad wins 46.2% vs right-shot opponents — Patrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.5% vs Patrick 51.1% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 57.9%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 50.4%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 56.9%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
Bjugstad
Patrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Bjugstad
Patrick
Last 5: Bjugstad 1-4 Patrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Patrick
0
2
Bjugstad
Patrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bjugstad
Patrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Patrick
0
1
Bjugstad
Patrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Patrick
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (467)
50.8% (732)
-2.0%
Power Play
53.4% (58)
57.8% (45)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
50.0% (2)
+10.0%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Patrick shoots right. Bjugstad is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Bjugstad shoots right. Patrick is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (205).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Patrick
Home
49.0% (261)
51.5% (388)
Away
49.8% (269)
50.9% (391)
By Period
Bjugstad
Patrick
P1
50.9%
53.7%
P2
50.5%
48.2%
P3
47.2%
52.5%
OT
40.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
44.0%▼
49.0%
49.4%
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2019 | OT | 00:36 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Mar 17, 2019 | 1 | 15:27 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Mar 17, 2019 | 1 | 09:12 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Feb 23, 2019 | 3 | 03:05 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Feb 23, 2019 | 2 | 05:57 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |