Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Patrick wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Patrick 51.1% vs Stamkos 52.8% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Patrick 69.5%
Defensive zone
Patrick 68.9%
Neutral zone
Patrick 69.0%
Result
Nolan Patrick favored at 69.1%
69.1%
30.9%
Patrick
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Patrick
Stamkos
Last 5: Patrick 0-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Patrick
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Patrick
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Patrick
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (732)
52.9% (735)
-2.1%
Power Play
57.8% (45)
53.4% (73)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
53.8% (145)
-3.8%
On power play, Patrick has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Patrick is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (205).
Patrick shoots right. Stamkos is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (267).
Home / Away
Patrick
Stamkos
Home
51.5% (388)
54.1% (481)
Away
50.9% (391)
52.1% (472)
By Period
Patrick
Stamkos
P1
53.7%
50.2%
P2
48.2%
53.4%
P3
52.5%
55.8%
OT
25.0%
36.4%
Final 5 min
49.4%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
51.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2019 | 1 | 14:43 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 2 | 06:08 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 1 | 09:49 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 3 | 12:43 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 1 | 16:15 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |