Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Patrick on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Patrick wins 58.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Patrick 48.9% vs Stamkos 50.9% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 68.6%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 72.4%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 69.0%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 70.9%
29.1%
70.9%
Patrick
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Patrick
Stamkos
Last 7: Patrick 5-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Patrick
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Patrick
3
1
Patrick
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Patrick
2
0
Patrick
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Patrick
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (156)
49.3% (789)
-1.9%
Power Play
56.3% (16)
56.9% (181)
-0.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Patrick is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (60).
Patrick shoots right. Stamkos is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Home / Away
Patrick
Stamkos
Home
43.8% (96)
52.0% (512)
Away
53.9% (76)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Patrick
Stamkos
P1
44.4%
42.1%
P2
45.6%
56.4%
P3
56.0%
53.7%
Final 5 min
51.4%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
48.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 09:19 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 02:29 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 14:56 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 04:39 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 04:15 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 01:24 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 00:53 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |