Scouting Report
Nolan Patrick holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Patrick on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Patrick wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Patrick 51.0% vs Thompson 42.8% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Patrick 86.7%
Defensive zone
Patrick 87.4%
Neutral zone
Patrick 79.9%
Result
Nolan Patrick favored at 82.4%
82.4%
17.6%
Patrick
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Patrick
Thompson
Last 6: Patrick 5-1 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Patrick
Thompson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Patrick
4
0
Patrick
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Patrick
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (1,978)
42.9% (3,521)
+7.7%
Power Play
57.5% (120)
46.8% (372)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
57.7% (26)
33.6% (265)
+24.1%
On penalty kill, Patrick has a +24.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Patrick is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (683).
Patrick shoots right. Thompson is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,147).
Home / Away
Patrick
Thompson
Home
49.7% (1,106)
44.9% (2,115)
Away
52.5% (1,018)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Patrick
Thompson
P1
52.9%
44.5%
P2
49.1%
43.6%
P3
51.3%
40.2%
OT
40.0%
36.4%
Final 5 min
51.8%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
51.0%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 17:56 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 07:45 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:47 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 00:33 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |