Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.7% vs 51.0%). Look for Bäck on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bäck 50.5% vs Stamkos 51.0% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 67.2%
Defensive zone
Bäck 77.0%
Neutral zone
Bäck 58.7%
Result
Oskar Bäck favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Bäck
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Bäck
Stamkos
Last 6: Bäck 2-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Bäck
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bäck
2
1
Bäck
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Bäck
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bäck
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (186)
50.4% (9,799)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
31.7% (41)
49.7% (825)
-18.0%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Bäck is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (107).
Bäck shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,778).
Home / Away
Bäck
Stamkos
Home
52.4% (103)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
49.2% (124)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Bäck
Stamkos
P1
51.5%
49.1%
P2
50.0%
52.7%
P3
50.8%
50.9%
Final 5 min
44.6%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bäck
44.0%▼
52.0%
50.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 04:09 | Defensive | Oskar Bäck |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 09:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 18:29 | Defensive | Oskar Bäck |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 18:19 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 08:38 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 02:29 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |