Scouting Report
Oskar Bäck holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Bäck on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bäck 51.3% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 80.7%
Defensive zone
Bäck 75.2%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 52.9%
Result
Oskar Bäck favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Bäck
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Bäck
Stamkos
Last 6: Bäck 2-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Bäck
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bäck
2
1
Bäck
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Bäck
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bäck
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (143)
49.3% (670)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (30)
33.3% (3)
+0.0%
On even strength, Bäck has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Bäck is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (80).
Bäck shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Bäck
Stamkos
Home
47.6% (82)
54.0% (400)
Away
56.0% (91)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Bäck
Stamkos
P1
54.3%
48.6%
P2
48.1%
54.5%
P3
56.0%
45.4%
Final 5 min
46.3%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bäck
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 04:09 | Defensive | Oskar Bäck |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 09:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 18:29 | Defensive | Oskar Bäck |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 18:19 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 08:38 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 02:29 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |